The Attribution Blueprint: Signal vs. Noise
Attribution is a structural engineering challenge. Truth-centered data systems rely on inference, not surveillance.
The industry operated under the delusion of perfect visibility.This was argued to be a fantasy.Marketing is Signal Processing. Design prioritizes inference, not tracking.
The Signal Processing Reality
An attempt is made to isolate the "signal" from the "noise." Traditional linear models(Next - Click) are mathematical fantasies.Focus shifts from Individual Tracking to Systemic Inference.
The New Blueprint: MMM and Incrementality
The attribution stack is built on foundational truths:
- Media Mix Modeling(MMM): Correlating investment with outcomes across time.
- Incrementality Testing: Using randomized control trials (RCTs) to find causality.
- Heuristic Calibration: Using platform data as directional sensors, not absolute truth.
Designing for the Dark Funnel
The "Dark Funnel" is accepted.A resilient system does not claim to see everything.Design accounts for uncertainty to build data systems that are ethical and durable.